Best MLB Strikeout Props for April 28th Yankees vs Rangers & Red Sox vs Blue Jays

Happy Tuesday! 

We’ve got a full card of baseball for today as we chug into month No. 2 of the season. Stay tuned for some MLB Picks

Season Record 12-11-1, -0.38 Units

Yankees at Rangers

Schlittler has been an absolute sensation for the Yankees in his first full season in the bigs, rocking a 1.17 ERA and 0.73 WHIP through 6 starts. And he’s got absolute elite skills, with a 41.1% Chase% (99th percentile as per Statcast) a 29.9% Whiff% (78th percentile) and 30.8% K%. He’s also now getting deeper into games as he went 6 and 8 innings respectively in his last two starts. He’s struck out at least 7 in 4 of his starts, though oddly enough not in his last one despite facing a season high 28 batters.

The mediocre Rangers and their extreme hitters park should not pose much of an obstacle. They have a teamwide 95 wRC+ and a 24.4% K% that’s 5th worst in MLB. I think the Schlittler K prop is a shade low thanks to his whiff rate slowing down in his last couple starts. He was maybe a little over-amped in his last one as the lifelong Red Sox fan and Boston area native was pitching in Fenway for the first time. And he was great, he just didn’t get the K’s. So I’ll hedge here with two plays on him.

Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (½ unit, -108 FanDuel) Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (½ unit -107 DraftKings)

Red Sox at Blue Jays

I wonder if I’m missing something, because this one seems extremely light. We only have one MLB start to go on for Tolle but he struck out 11 of the 22 Yankees he faced in an electric debut against Schlittler last week. It's just one game, but he had a 19.4% SwStr%. He buzzed through the minors as well with 19 K’s in 15 innings.

The Blue Jays are not an easy team for lefties to whiff as they have a league best 17.2K%. That coupled with the unlikelihood of Tolle making it terribly deep is why we get a low number here. But the corollary is that Toronto’s offense is not that good right now, especially against southpaws as they have just an 83 wRC+. I think Tolle hangs in long enough to get to his number.

Peyton Tolle Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 FanDuel)